20MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
Starting at 0, what is the expected time for W to first hit +1 or −1?
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Answer:1
Wt2−t is a martingale. At the exit time Wτ2=1, so optional stopping gives E[τ]=1. In general E[τ]=ab for exit from (−b,a).
21MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
Starting at 0, what is the probability that W hits 2 before −3?
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Answer:53
W is a martingale: 2p−3(1−p)=0 gives p=53.
22MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process dX=−θXdt+σdW has θ=2, σ=2. What is its stationary variance?
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Answer:1
The stationary variance is 2θσ2=44=1.
23EasyType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
Which term appears in the Black–Scholes PDE Vt+rSVS+□−rV=0?
21σ2VSS
21σ2S2VSS
σSVS
21σSVSS
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Answer:21σ2S2VSS
It comes from the Itô correction 21VSS(dS)2 with (dS)2=σ2S2dt.
24MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
By Girsanov, under the measure Q with dPdQ=e−θWT−21θ2T, which process is a Q-Brownian motion?
Wt
Wt−θt
Wt+θt
θWt
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Answer:Wt+θt
The change of measure adds drift −θ to W under Q, so Wt+θt is driftless.
25EasyType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
Under the risk-neutral measure, a non-dividend-paying stock grows on average at:
its real-world drift μ
the risk-free rate r
zero
r−21σ2
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Answer: The risk-free rate r
The discounted price e−rtSt must be a Q-martingale.
26EasyType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
d(tWt)=?
tdWt
Wtdt+tdWt
Wtdt+tdWt+dt
Wtdt
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Answer:Wtdt+tdWt
The product rule; there is no correction because dt⋅dWt=0.
27MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
What is Var(∫01Wsds)?
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Answer:31
∫01∫01min(s,u)dsdu=31.
28EasyType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
A Brownian bridge on [0,1] is pinned at 0 at both ends. What is its variance at t=21?
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Answer:41
The bridge variance is t(1−t).
29MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
The Stratonovich integral ∫0tWs∘dWs equals:
21(Wt2−t)
21Wt2
21(Wt2+t)
Wt2
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Answer:21Wt2
Stratonovich integrals obey the ordinary chain rule; the midpoint evaluation removes the Itô correction.
30HardType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
By Feynman–Kac, u(t,x)=E[g(XT)∣Xt=x] with dX=μ(X)dt+σ(X)dW solves:
ut+μux+21σ2uxx=0,u(T,x)=g(x)
ut=μux+21σ2uxx
ut+μux+σ2uxx=0
ut+21σ2uxx=ru
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Answer:ut+μux+21σ2uxx=0
Apply Itô to u(t,Xt); for it to be a martingale the drift must vanish, giving the backward equation with terminal condition g.
31EasyType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
What is Var(W3−W1)?
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Answer:2
Increments are normal with variance equal to the time step: 3−1=2.
32MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
What is E[eW4]?
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Answer:e2≈7.389
W4∼N(0,4) and E[eX]=eμ+σ2/2, so the value is e2. Equivalently, eWt−t/2 is a martingale.
33MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
By Itô's lemma, the drift of d(sinWt) is
0
21sin(Wt)dt
−21sin(Wt)dt
cos(Wt)dt
−21cos(Wt)dt
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Answer: C. −21sin(Wt)dt
d(sinW)=cosWdW−21sinWdt: the second derivative of sin is −sin, and the Itô correction is 21f′′.
34MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
What is P(W1>1)?
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Answer:1−Φ(1)≈0.159
W1 is standard normal, so this is the tail beyond one standard deviation, about 15.9%.
35EasyType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
What is the quadratic variation of 3Wt over [0,2]?
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Answer:18
Quadratic variation scales with the square of the coefficient: 32⋅2=18.
36MediumType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
For dS=μSdt+σSdW with σ=0.2, what is Var(lnS4)?
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Answer:0.16
lnST is normal with variance σ2T=0.04⋅4.
37HardType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
For the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process dX=−2Xdt+dW, what is the variance of its stationary distribution?
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Answer:41
The stationary variance is 2θσ2=41 with θ=2, σ=1.
38EasyType asked atCitadelGoldman SachsMorgan Stanley
What is E[∫0TWtdWt]?
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Answer:0
An Itô integral of a square-integrable adapted process is a martingale starting at 0, so its expectation is 0. (Directly: the integral equals 21(WT2−T), whose mean is 0.)